An expert has answers for you about how Valentine’s Day puts supply chains to the test.
At first glance, Valentine’s Day seems to follow a simple formula: red roses, a box of chocolates, and a last-minute dinner reservation. But behind every box of heart-shaped candies and perfectly timed flower delivery is a high-stakes logistical operation racing against the calendar.
Each February, the global supply chain shifts into overdrive to meet one of the most emotionally and economically demanding shopping weeks of the year. Flowers are harvested thousands of miles away from the United States and rushed onto cargo planes. Chocolate and candy makers ramp up production months in advance. Miss the deadline, and the product may be worthless.
A big deal for the economy
Valentine’s Day is more than a cultural tradition—it’s a full-scale economic event. According to the National Retail Federation’s annual survey, Americans spent a record $27.5 billion on Valentine’s Day in 2025, and projections suggest consumer spending will remain robust in 2026, hovering around $27.7 billion. On average, each US household is expected to spend close to $188 on gifts, dining, and experiences.
That spending is spread across a wide range of products and services, each with its own supply-chain pressures. Market research shows more than half of Valentine’s Day shoppers purchase candy, while roughly 40% buy flowers, creating predictable but intense spikes in demand.
“They actually have to start planning for Valentine’s Day six months in advance,” says Robert Handfield, a supply-chain expert and a professor in North Carolina State University’s Poole College of Management.
“I worked with Lindt Chocolate and they typically do a one-year planning process. Since everything has to be in the stores mid-January, by December they start sending things out.”
Consumer spending on Valentine’s Day also extends far beyond traditional romantic gifts. Research indicates that nearly one-third of Valentine’s Day spending goes toward non-romantic recipients, including friends, coworkers, classmates, teachers, and even pets. At the same time, Valentine’s Day remains one of the busiest days of the year for restaurants, ranking just behind Mother’s Day, adding further strain to food supply chains and last-mile delivery networks during an already busy winter season.
Flowers and chocolates
Chocolates and roses often begin their journey far from the stores they fill each February. According to the Society of American Florists, more than 250 million roses are produced specifically for Valentine’s Day.
“There is more than just one ‘largest’ producer of flowers, but the majority come from Colombia and Ecuador,” Handfield says. “We have a lot of domestic growers in California, and then the Netherlands is really known for their tulips.”
While producing and exporting so many flowers across countries and oceans may seem overwhelming, Handfield says the process has become highly refined over time.
“They [the countries] have it under control,” he says. “Growers start preparing months in advance. But it’s a hard balance, making sure the flowers don’t bloom too early and they don’t die in transit. These rose breeders have spent quite a bit of time with these supply chains so they are very careful.”
The other major Valentine’s Day staple, chocolate, comes with its own logistical demands. Chocolate companies like Russel Stover and Hershey’s follow similarly meticulous timelines. According to Handfield, inventory is staged in distribution centers by December to ensure products reach store shelves by January, well ahead of the holiday rush.
Tariff heartbreak?
With imposed tariffs on European countries making headlines, some consumers may wonder whether flowers and chocolates will come with a higher price tag this Valentine’s Day. Handfield says shoppers are unlikely to feel that impact.
“Most people have seen the disruptions, but companies account for this in their forecasting and planning,” he says. “I don’t anticipate getting any challenges when it comes to getting flowers from your boyfriend.”
While Valentine’s Day may be fueled by emotion, its success depends on precision. Months of planning, miles of transportation, and carefully timed deliveries all converge on a single date circled on the calendar. For supply-chain experts, it’s a reminder that even the most romantic traditions rely on systems designed to move fast, adapt quickly, and deliver on time.
So when roses arrive fresh and chocolates line store shelves on February 14, the real perfect match may be the one unfolding behind the scenes: every link in a global supply chain working flawlessly so millions of moments aren’t missed.
Source: North Carolina State University
