carbon emissions

Nixing nuclear plants will strain system

CARNEGIE MELLON (US) — Curtailing nuclear power will put undue stress on the supply and cost of electricity, while increasing air pollution, carbon emissions, and the reliance on fossil fuels
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In response to the March earthquake and tsunami that destroyed nuclear power plants in Fukushima, Japan, Germany has decided to shutdown all nine of its nuclear power plants by 2022, and Switzerland will shutdown all five of its plants by 2032.

Nuclear power currently supplies 25 percent of Germany’s power, 39 percent of Switzerland’s power, and 20 percent of the electricity consumed in the U.S.

“Turning off a single large nuclear power plant could require dozens of coal and gas-fired plants to ramp up production to make up the difference,” says Paul Fischbeck, professor of social and decision sciences and engineering and public policy at Carnegie Mellon University.

“These plants use fossil fuels, cost more to operate, and emit pollution that can lead to acid rain and ozone, and CO2, a greenhouse gas.”

The differences could be significant, Fischbeck says. “Replacing the Brown’s Ferry plant in Alabama with a mix of coal and gas power plants would cause CO2 emissions to increase by approximately 24 million tons each year. That’s the same as the annual emissions of over 4 million cars.

Researchers used a national database of more than 15,000 power generators to measure the impact of what the selective shutdown of any combination of the United States’ 104 reactors located at 65 nuclear power plants would have on the region, economically and environmentally and what would be needed to make up the shortfall in electricity generation.

The researchers also looked at shutting down reactors based on various risk characteristics, such as being in an earthquake, tornado, or hurricane zone.

“If plants that are in ‘tornado alley’ were shutdown, national coal consumption for power generation would go up over 160 million tons or 16 percent, and we would be spending $9 billion more for electricity every year,” says David Rode, managing director of Management Consultants.

Given time and enough investment, some of the generation lost by shutting down nuclear plants could be made up by developing renewable resources and improving energy efficiency, but the size of the potential shortfall is daunting.

“To replace the nuclear plants located in counties with populations over half a million with wind power would require the construction of 25,000 large wind turbines on land greater than one and half times the size of Rhode Island,” Fischbeck says.

“Nuclear power is a major component of the nation’s electricity generating capability, and policies that lead to its curtailment must be carefully planned recognizing the long-term negative impacts that are very real.”

More news from Carnegie Mellon University: www.cmu.edu/news/

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