Futurity.org » statistics

Ranked-choice voting: Does the math add up?

Louis Bergeron-Stanford — Wed, 09 Nov 2011 15:55:22 +0000

STANFORD (US) — “Instant runoff” voting, in which voters rank candidates in order of preference, is an increasingly popular alternative to voting for only one candidate in each race, but there’s disagreement about the validity of the results.

Advocates say ranked-choice voting—used this week in San Francisco to elect a new mayor, county sheriff, and district attorney—does a better job than a traditional election of producing a winner who truly represents most of the voters’ preference. Opponents disagree.

‘Hot hands’ keep athletes on win streak

Karen Peart-Yale — Tue, 11 Oct 2011 15:25:27 +0000

YALE (US) — Athletes on a winning streak are likely to stay on one, according to new evidence that supports the “hot hand” phenomenon.

For the study, published in the journal PLoS One, researchers at Yale University investigated the common belief among basketball players and fans that players’ probabilities of hitting a free throw are greater following a hit than following a miss on the previous shot.

Mining knowledge begets knowledge

William Harms-Chicago — Fri, 11 Feb 2011 20:52:13 +0000

U. CHICAGO (US) — The Internet no longer simply disseminates knowledge—it now has the potential to shape research through the expansion of metaknowledge—the study of knowledge itself.

A new study, published in the journal Science, argues that metaknowledge has the capability to develop a better understanding of science’s social context and how scientists’ personal backgrounds or funding sources shape their research approaches, findings, and choices of research topics.

Almost half of injured Haitians are children

James Grant-USC — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 21:22:40 +0000

Capt. Mark Poirier, a medical officer with the 82nd Airborne Division’s 1st Squadron, 73rd Cavalry Regiment, checks a baby brought to the squadron’s forward operating base in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, Jan. 18. Injured children have special needs for equipment, including thinner hypodermic needles, appropriate pharmaceuticals in children’s dosages, and medical specialists in pediatrics and other areas. (Courtesy: U.S. Army/Flickr)

USC (US)—Victims of the Jan. 12 quake in Haiti include an extraordinarily high number of children—more than 110,000, nearly half of the estimated total—according to a statistical study.

This information should guide relief workers on the ground, according to Jeffrey Upperman and Robert Neches, co-developers of the Pediatric Emergency Decision Support System (PEDSS), a software tool to help medical service providers more effectively plan for, train for, and respond to serious incidents and disasters affecting children.

Future Forests: Beyond 2200

Debra Levey Larson-Illinois — Wed, 13 Jan 2010 20:19:04 +0000

Unlike managing agricultural systems, which can adapt to change quickly, “with a forest, the lifespan is 100, 200 years, so once you do something it’s longer term. We need to be making policies now that will affect our forests hundreds of years from now,” says researcher George Gertner. (Courtesy: iStockphoto)

U. ILLINOIS—The composition of some U.S. forests might be quite different 200 to 400 years from today, a new study suggests.

Researchers from the University of Illinois report that temperature and photosynthetic active radiation are the two most important variables in predicting what forest landscapes may look like in the future. After the year 2200, uncertainties become very high.

Education level a factor in autism clusters

Phyllis Brown-UC Davis — Thu, 07 Jan 2010 16:45:33 +0000

After mapping the state’s birth cohort based on where the mothers lived at the time when their children were born, the researchers pinpointed birth locations of children who were later diagnosed with autism. The study looked for areas of higher incidence within each of the service zones of California’s Department of Developmental Services regional centers, which coordinate services for individuals with developmental disorders like autism. (Enlarge map/view other maps.)

UC DAVIS—Researchers have identified 10 locations in California where the incidence of autism is higher than surrounding areas in the same region. Most of the areas, or clusters, are in locations where parents have higher-than-average levels of education.

Because children with more educated parents are more likely to be diagnosed with an autism spectrum disorder, one need look no further for a cause, the UC Davis researchers say. The other clusters are located close to major autism treatment centers.

Predicting power outages before the storm

Dennis O'Shea-JHU — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 15:41:54 +0000

Having more accurate estimates, prior to the storm’s arrival, of how many customers will lose power and where those outages will occur will allow utilities to better plan their crew requests and crew locations, the researchers say. Above: Seth Guikema of Johns Hopkins University.

JOHNS HOPKINS/TEXAS A&M (US)—Using data from Hurricane Katrina and four other storms, researchers have created new computer models to help utilities better forecast hurricane-caused power outages in advance.

“The goal is to restore power faster and save customers money,” says Seth Guikema, assistant professor of geography and environmental engineering at Johns Hopkins University.

Toddlers follow their own grammar rules

Tim Green-U. Texas — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 23:29:56 +0000

“How exactly a child learned these was considered something of a mystery and so it was declared by some that they must be innate,” Colin Bannard says. “However there is increasing evidence that children’s path to grammar is a gradual and piecemeal process.”

TEXAS-AUSTIN (US)—Using advanced computer modeling and statistical analysis, a linguistics professor has found that toddlers develop their own individual structures for using language that are very different from what we traditionally think of as grammar.

“Grammars have different forms in development,” says Colin Bannard, assistant professor at the University of Texas at Austin. “We shouldn’t assume a child’s grammar is anything like our traditional notion of what grammar is.”

Stressed out, dude? Don’t go to Vegas.

Futurity-Jenny Leonard — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 14:34:03 +0000

“Men seem to enter more risky financial situations than women, which was part of the impetus for our study,” says Nichole Lighthall, the study’s lead author. “But only in the stressed condition did we see any statistical differences in risky behavior between men and women.”

USC (US)—New research shows that, unlike women, men under stress may be more likely to take risks, an impulse known to translate into real-life behaviors such as gambling, smoking, unsafe sex, and illegal drug use.

Mexico says adiós to high health care costs

Futurity-Jenny Leonard — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 21:04:07 +0000

The success of Seguro Popular, which covers about as many people as are uninsured in America, could provide lessons for other countries, according to the study authors

PRINCETON (US)—A program created to provide health care to 50 million Mexicans has been shown effective at reducing catastrophic costs, according to the largest health policy study of its kind. The success of Seguro Popular, which covers about as many people as are uninsured in America, could provide lessons for other countries, according to the study authors.

“We were able to scientifically establish that the program achieved its main goal to reduce health care costs,” says Kosuke Imai, assistant professor of politics at Princeton University who developed a new statistical method for the study. “This represents an important success not only for health care but also for a larger agenda to encourage evidence-based policymaking.”