Comments on: Rising temps likely to flare African conflict

By: End of November Links of Interest | General Blogger Here

End of November Links of Interest | General Blogger Here — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 18:59:29 +0000

[...] Rising temps likely to flare African conflict. [...]

By: Glenn

Glenn — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 02:19:11 +0000

The climate models that “project rising temperatures in the coming decades” are worthless. As a group they have failed to predict temperatures since they were initially developed. See:

http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2009/10/09/major-issues-with-the-realism-of-the-ipcc-models-reported-by-graeme-stephens-of-colorado-state-university/

and

http://www.itia.ntua.gr/getfile/850/2/documents/2008EGU_ClimatePredictionPr_.pdf

As someone who has spent many years building successful computer-based models of complex (but not climate) phenomena I am very skeptical that models of noisy data where all the driving forces are arguably not known, where you have only a very small number of good years of data with any “predictor” variables, and have completed zero successful out-of-sample tests are worth the CPU time it takes to run them.

By: Peter

Peter — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 00:06:03 +0000

I would say that it is more logical to assume that unrest exists because of foreign economic development and pressure to exist within a capitalist society.

By: Stephen W. O'Driscoll

Stephen W. O'Driscoll — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 17:35:29 +0000

When I was a student in the early 60′s one of my history professors provided a scale concerning future wars. He noted Southeast Asia was the next hotspot (six months before Vietnam) then the Middle East and finally Africa in the early 21st century. That was as far as his projections could take him. He also noted each war would be worse than the one before. The only thing he missed was 9/11.

By: Lee

Lee — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 00:42:22 +0000

Surprise, surprise. They cant keep it together in the best of times.