Health & Medicine - Posted by Hilary Hurd Anyaso-Northwestern on Tuesday, June 28, 2011 11:10 - 3 Comments 
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(No Ratings Yet) Loading ...Weighing in on why soda tax won’t work
Because obese people tend to drink diet soda, taxing soft drinks with added sugar or other sweeteners would not be a good weapon in combating obesity. (Credit: iStockphoto)
NORTHWESTERN (US) — Obese people are more likely to drink diet soda, so a tax on sugary drinks will not only not curb obesity, it could also penalize people who aren’t overweight.
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The text of this article by Futurity is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-No Derivatives License.
An amendment to a bill in the Illinois Senate calls for adding a penny an ounce to the cost of most soft drinks with added sugar or sweeteners, including soda, sweet iced tea, and coffee drinks. The legislation excludes artificially sweetened and diet sodas.
“After doing the analysis, it really turns out to be the case that obese people like diet soda so much more than regular soda that you can do whatever you want to the price,” says Ketan Patel, a fourth-year doctoral student in economics at Northwestern University.
“You’re not going to get that much change in obese people’s weight because they already drink diet soda.”
Patel says he initially didn’t know if the diet soda preference was going to be a large factor in evaluating the effectiveness of the soda tax.
“The concern I had was that maybe obese people are less price sensitive,” Patel says. “So if obese people are less price sensitive, then raising the price through a tax will affect their behavior less.”
But that concern became irrelevant since diet drinks are not being considered in the proposed obesity tax. Beyond its ineffectiveness in reducing obesity, such a tax also would punish consumers that are not overweight or obese, Patel says.
Increasing the tax could conceivably have an effect on weight, but it would depend on whether people are at a stable weight or whether they are already eating too many calories and therefore their weight will continue to increase.
If increasing weights are the status quo, then a tax could prevent people who are currently overweight or normal weight from becoming obese.
For the study, Patel used a large data set of sodas price and sales data with individual demographic characteristics and body mass index (BMI) to estimate consumer preferences.
After obtaining estimates of consumer preferences, Patel simulated how a tax would change the choices that consumers make and used the results of the simulation to estimate changes in weight using a weight change model from existing nutrition literature.
More news from Northwestern University: www.northwestern.edu/newscenter/index.html
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3 Comments
Helen
I wonder who funded this research? It sounds exactly like the line of argument used by food companies and it echoes that of the tobacco industry. Taxing carbonated drinks needs to evaluated alongside a package of other policy changes aimed at the four integrated risk factors that relate to NCDs. Taking them one-by-one is exactly what the food industry would like researchers to do.
Steve
While they indicate that those already obese prefer diet drinks, what about all of those not yet obese but likely to be, namely children? Do they overwhelmingly drink diet sodas too, or do their parents not think that closely about it? Would a price difference between regular and diet sodas encourage children to cut their sugar intake in favor of artificial sweeteners, and would this have an effect on overall obesity rates?
The concept of limiting anyone’s intake of sodas and sweetened juices should be understood to be a health priority. To counter endless commercials and advertising that promote these beverages without ever discussing the health risks of NO nutrients, Excessive sugar, Excessive acidity, and the like, should not be allowed.
Adverstising about these products cannot say much that is good, so they have great music or dancing. Too bad – millions spent on a useless ingestible that probably harms.
As to diet sodas being left out, how did that happen? Lobbying perhaps? It is absurd to think that additives (sweeteners) that harm experimental animal subjects, which these do, are safe(r).
Drink unsweetened fruit juice, teas, coffee or water, those are all healthier and more beneficial. When we look around for the causes of the increase in diabetes, cancer, heart disease, and the ills of modern society – drinking sodas of any kind – are certain to be a factor.
I am the founder of The Annie Appleseed Project, an all-vounteer network providing health information for people with cancer or at risk.