End of the world? Not so fast

UC SANTA BARBARA (US) — The Maya prophecy predicting the 2012 end of the world may be off by 50 to 100 years or more, according to a new book.

For nearly half a century, Maya scholars have relied on a fixed numerical value called the GMT constant as a means of correlating the dates on the ancient Maya calendar with those on the Gregorian—or modern—calendar.

Gerardo Aldana, associate professor of Chicana and Chicano Studies at the University of California at Barbara, challenges the accepted Gregorian dates of all Classic Mayan historical events, including the end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it 2012 prophecies in Calendars and Years II: Astronomy and Time in the Ancient and Medieval World, the second in a series edited by John Steele, associate professor of Egyptology and Ancient West Asian Studies at Brown University.

Aldana’s research, in general, focuses on reconstructing Mayan astronomical practices, which for the most part can be recovered from their applications.

Most of the data found in the archeological record amount to ritual events timed by astronomical phenomena; architecture oriented to observable astronomical events; or numerology tying together science, history, and religion with hieroglyphic inscriptions carved in stone.

“One of the principal complications is that there are really so few scholars who know the astronomy, the epigraphy, and the archeology,” says Aldana.

“Because there are so few people who are working on that, you get people who don’t see the full scope of the problem. And because they don’t see the full scope, they buy things they otherwise wouldn’t. It’s a fun problem.”

Aldana turns the lens away from just the archaeological record to include a critical attention to the methods used by modern scholars to access the astronomical events viewed by ancient astronomers.

Based in part on astronomical events, the GMT constant is named for early Mayanists Joseph Goodman, Juan Martinez-Hernandez, and J. Eric S. Thompson. Each contributed to its calculation.

“Goodman worked at the turn of the 20th century, and Martinez shortly thereafter,” says Aldana. “Neither of them found much of a following because at the time, the work of Sylvanus Morley and Herbert Spinden was considered the strongest.”

The early work of Goodman, Martinez, Morley, and Spinden put heavy emphasis on the dates recovered from colonial documents written in Mayan languages and recorded in the Latin alphabet, Aldana says. “Thompson did a much more thorough job of addressing as much data as possible.”

Aldana’s article centers, for the most part, on the work of Floyd Lounsbury, an American linguist, anthropologist, and Mayanist scholar and epigrapher who examined the problem of the GMT constant by focusing on the data in the Dresden Codex Venus Table, a combination calendar and almanac that charts specific dates related to the movements of Venus.

“Astronomy had been considered in the past, but none had put the emphasis on the Venus Table as much as Lounsbury did,” Aldana explains.

“He took the position that his work removed the last obstacle to fully accepting the GMT constant. Others took his work even further, suggesting that he had proven the GMT constant to be correct. Because of its convenience for specific types of research, et cetera, the acceptance of the GMT in scholarly circles today is very close to unanimous.”

Aldana’s review of Lounsbury’s conclusions demonstrates that they are far from irrefutable.

“This may not seem to be much, but what it does is destabilize the entire argument,” he says. “If the Venus Table cannot be used to prove the GMT as Lounsbury suggests, its acceptance depends on the reliability of the corroborating data.

“The rest of the article historically unpacks each element of corroborating data to show that they are even less stable and/or persuasive than the Venus data. And the overall argument behind the GMT constant falls like a stack of cards.”

Although Aldana identifies the problems of the GMT constant, he isn’t the first to question the calendar correlation and offers neither a solution nor a replacement.

He says his goal is to study the soundness of the arguments presented in support of—and opposition to—the GMT constant and attempts others have made at identifying a solution.

Aldana says a sound demonstration of the incorrectness of the GMT is a necessary first step in deriving a sound replacement.

“A few scholars have stood up and said, ‘No, the GMT is wrong. But in my opinion, what they’ve done is try to provide alternatives without looking at why the GMT is wrong in the first place.”

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chat14 Comments


  1. Dr. O'

    While the GMT has been challenged several times the proof of it being incorrect must overcome the points where it has been correct or close to correct. The arrival of Cortez was predicted to the day based on the GMT. The date of Dec. 22, 2012 is the date of the earth passing through the galactic plane. Any new calculation concerning the Maya calendar should explain these points. There is just over two years to evaluate the whole question. This isn’t much time.

  2. Dave

    Moving the goal-posts yet again. What a surprise.

  3. Diane

    Could knowing the date Cortez arrived have influenced the later calculations? How could the Mayans predict the end of the world hundreds of years ago? Most of the known history of Mayans is written by the conquistadors, who destroyed so much of the Mayan documents.

  4. Joseph I. Accortt

    Very interesting. Two comments. 1) .Comparing to the Gregorian calendar is kind of ludicrous, it has been shifted around numerous times for all sorts of (non scientific reasons) 2). If the Mayan culture was so advanced, that it’s calendar predictions are taken seriously, why weren’t they smart enough to figure that Cortez and his henchmen planned their exploitation and eventual disappearance as a vibrant community.

  5. Johnny Wellington

    People are still talking about this? I thought we were past this.

  6. R Neff

    Joseph, regarding point 1) the Julian/Gregorian calendar is well-known, even with the modifications made over time (and at different times by different countries), and since we use the Gregorian calendar today, it makes sense to use that as a reference point.
    2) Being good at math and science has nothing to do with being good at religion and politics. It also helped that the Europeans had relatively recently gotten gunpowder technology from the Chinese.

  7. Anita Mitchell

    Let’s assume wisdom and science acumen did not begin with us and that the Maya are correct. Wouldn’t that give us ample reason to cherish what we have and live as if life is precious. I’m going to go with the Maya system and be pleasantly surprised if the 12/22/12 day passes and the world ends the following week.

  8. GMT

    GMT correlation (Goodman – Martínez – Thompson). Today, this correlation is commonly but incorrectly used to convert Mayan dates to Christian ones. Only the Böhm correlation (1991, 1996, 1999, 2004, 2008) of 622,261 days, which has been presented repeatedly in professional literature and at international conferences (International Union of Prehistoric and Protohistoric Sciences, UISPP), fits both dates and corresponds to the actual astronomical phenomena which were in reality recorded by Mayan astronomers:
    Dresden Codex:

    9. 16. 4. 10. 8 12 Lamat = 1,412,848 days + 622,261 days = 2,035,109 J.D. = 29 October 859
    Solar eclipse, maximum occlusion 85 % occurred at 9:19 min. local time.

    9. 9. 9. 16. 0 1 Ahau 18 Kayab = 1,364,360 days + 622,261 = 1,986,621 J.D. = 27 January 727
    Rising of Venus 8 days after inferior conjunction with the Sun.





  11. aces

    @Dr. O

    I have talked to many astronomers and this talk of “Earth passing through the galactic plane” means NOTHING at all. Its completely silly.

  12. Ricardo Inclan

    Please note you are using an AZTEC and not a Mayan calendar for illustration. (and a hugly one by the way)

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