Earth & Environment - Posted by Andrew Duff-Southampton on Friday, December 10, 2010 12:18 - 4 Comments 
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Renewed efforts are needed to reduce emissions in order to minimize the chances of high-end climate change that could raise sea levels from between .5m and 2m forcing the equivalent of 2.4 percent of the global population to move. (Credit: iStockphoto)
U. SOUTHAMPTON (UK) — Sea levels can be expected to rise from between .5m and 2m by 2100 if temperatures see a warming of 4°C, according to new research.
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The text of this article by Futurity is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-No Derivatives License.
Globally, if coastal defenses are not strengthened and upgraded to cope with conditions, it could result in the forced displacement of up to 187 million people over the century, equivalent to 2.4 percent of the global population.
Researchers argue for renewed efforts to reduce emissions to minimize the chances of high-end climate change and the need for accelerated and focused research that improves understanding of how the climate system might behave under a +4°C warming, what the impacts of such changes might be, and how best to adapt to what are likely to be unprecedented changes in the world we live in.
Details appear in a special edition of the journal Royal Society’s Philosophical Transactions.
“Climate-induced sea-level rise remains highly uncertain, particularly the contribution from large ice sheets,” says Robert Nicholls, professor at University of Southampton.
“Protection is costly with up to 0.02 percent of global domestic product needed. In response, we need to continue to monitor and better understand the processes that contribute to sea-level rise, mitigate, and adapt for the long-term future.”
The 2009 Copenhagen Accord recognized the scientific view “that the increase in global temperature should be below 2 degrees Celsius” despite growing views that this might be too high.
At the same time, the continued rise in greenhouse gas emissions in the last decade, and the delays in a comprehensive global emissions reduction agreement, has made achieving this target extremely difficult, arguably impossible, raising the likelihood of global temperature rises of 3 or 4°C within this century.
Despite this, there are few studies that assess the potential impacts and consequences of a warming of 4°C or greater in a systematic manner.
More news from the University of Southampton: http://www.soton.ac.uk/
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4 Comments
Richard La Porte
burt curry
While the changes in temperature are within the norms of what the planet has experienced many times in its past, the speed of the changes are unprecedented. What should be taking 10,000 years or more to happen, is now happening within the span of 100 to 200 years. That is not possible without including the affects of man made actions into the equation.
Ronaldo
Richard & burt, you’re both morons. Death is the great leveller. We’ve seen this coming in the 70s. I say bring it on!
The key is preparation. Human’s are adaptive.
CHARLES DARWIN
Fake science by fake scientist…. alams over future… like past alams.
1… Over-population… the big lie… population in japan, korea and western europe are declining.. low -birth-rates in 1st world.. The richer they are are: the less children people will have
2. Year 2000-computer bug… the big lie.. Nothing happen.
3. Earth: center of the universe: the big lie… Pope told all earth is center of the universe… Cosmos has billions of star with billion of galaxies each with billion of stars….
4. Global warming… climate change.. the big lie: earth climate has changed for 10,000 to a million years… change in past and will change again in future..
5. The big Lie continues…. scientist can do the big lie like All other people……….
6. Experiment.. facts: publish for world…. let’s publish the facts and let the world see the facts for what they are?
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There may be an increase in the global system temperature measurements in the northern hemisphere but to attribute it to human action lacks the insight into the long term fluctuations of the planets normal parameters. Picture a dirty and slightly wet pool ball with a red-hot center and expect the microbes on the surface to keep it from going into the corner pocket.